Moonlight ruined everything. I know that seems like an odd thing to say about a heartbreaking gem of a film that bucked the odds to best frontrunner La La Land and win the Best Picture Oscar—but that’s the thing. It gave us hope. It made us believe that the Oscars had turned over a new leaf and were actually willing to vote for beautiful, challenging, original works of art that didn’t necessarily center straight white people.

But, in fact, since Moonlight won two years ago, the Academy has chosen two rather accessible, middlebrow films, both which celebrated diversity in a somewhat pat and paternalistic way.

Two years ago was The Shape of Water. I liked the film well enough—and lord knows Guillermo del Toro is an Oscar-caliber director—but found its odd mixture of whimsy and menace slightly off-putting. What’s more, its message of embracing the “other” was simplistic to say the least. Still, that was a masterpiece compared to last year’s Green Book, one of the most baffling Oscar wins in recent years.

The point is, neither of those films was the best of its year—or even the best film nominated (last year gave us Roma and A Star is Born; the year before gave us the embarrassment of riches that was Phantom Menace, Call Me By Your Name, and Dunkirk).

Which brings us to this year. As the Oscar race has come into focus, it seems like two films are duking it out for Best Picture: Parasite and 1917.

Let me make something clear: I917 is a good film. I gave it a good review. I recommend it to friends. I liked it! But it’s no Parasite, a singular masterpiece that is one of the most original, smart, and genre-smashing films I’ve ever seen.

In this scenario, 1917 is the La La Land—the good film that also seems like the safe and predictable choice. Parasite is Moonlight (obviously, an even better comparison would be Roma, another foreign language film that was nominated for Best Picture, but let’s stick with my analogy here).

Were this 2018, the year after Moonlight won, I would’ve confidently chosen Parasite. But the Shape of Water and Green Book have mucked up the works. My head is spinning. I don’t know who to believe!

Anyway, with that confidence-inspiring introduction under my belt, here are my best guesses for this year’s Oscars, including how secure I am with each pick.

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Parasite, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, or The Irishman

How confident am I in my prediction? I had to make prediction, and a prediction was made.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Who will win: Sam Mendes

Who should win: Bong Joon-ho

How confident am I in my prediction? Moderately?

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio

How confident am I in my prediction: Is there a word greater than “extremely”?

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Who will win: Renée Zellweger
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan

How confident am I in my prediction? Does a bear relieve itself in the woods?

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Who will win: Brad Pitt

Who should win: Joe Pesci

How confident am I in my prediction? Bet the house confident

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Who will win: Laura Dern

Who should win: Scarlett Johannson

How confident am I in my prediction? Tattooing it on my arm confident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, Joker

Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Who will win: Jojo Rabbit

Who should win: The Irishman

How confident am I in my prediction? Not wildly

Best Original Screenplay

Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood

Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won, Parasite

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Marriage Story

How confident am I in my prediction? My palms are sweaty.

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

For Sama

Honeyland

Who will win: American Factory

Who should win: Honeyland

How confident am I in my prediction? I mean, the Obamas produced it.

International Film

Corpus Christi, Poland

Honeyland, North Macedonia

Les Miserables, France

Pain and Glory, Spain

Parasite, South Korea

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Parasite

How confident am I in my prediction? Brad Pitt confident

Best Cinematography

Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

Lawrence Sher, Joker

Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

Roger Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

How confident am I in my prediction? Not Brad Pitt confident, but confident all the same.

Animated Feature

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

I Lost My Body

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Klaus

Who will win: Toy Story 4

Who should win: Toy Story 4
How confident am I in my prediction? I don’t really see—checks notes—Klaus pulling the upset here.

The Oscars air this Sunday, February 9 on ABC. Check back to see how I did