Two days from now, Joaquin Phoenix will likely win an Oscar for his depiction of the Joker in Todd Phillips’ lugubrious take on the super villain’s origin story. So, for your consideration, I give you Margot Robbie in Birds of Prey, a performance that is no less inventive and committed, but way more fun.

Robbie plays the notorious Harley Quinn. Her origin story goes like this: At one point a respected psychiatrist, she falls for her patient, the Joker, then falls (literally) into a vat of radioactive goo, and emerges a punkish anarchist with pigtails, hot pants, and zero you-know-whats to give. Does she have any actual super powers? Nothing notable, although she seemingly has more strength and speed than the average person (at least in one scene, that speed is fueled by the giant pile of cocaine she collides with). But her greatest superpower, I suppose, is her absolute embrace of chaos. The crazier things get, the happier she seems.

In the past, Harley has largely been defined by her love of Joker, so Birds of Prey has a pretty fun concept: What happens when Harley and Joker break up? Well, for one, she’s even more manic than usual. But also, the protection he provided her evaporates. She suddenly has several targets on her back. Each new character is introduced by the “grievance” they have with Harley. Suffice it to say she has a knack for pissing people off.

Robbie is having an absolute blast playing this character, an unholy combination of Alex from A Clockwork Orange and Cindy Brady. One minute she’s wreaking havoc on a nightclub—breaking a sexist creep’s legs, puking into a stranger’s purse—the next minute she’s giggling in front of cartoons and kissing her pet hyena. And, occasionally, as she’s glitter bombing a police station or blowing up a chemical plant, she’ll stop to dispense some long-dormant, dimly accessed bit of psychological wisdom. (“Psychologically speaking, vengeance rarely brings the catharsis we hope for.”)

But she’s not the only ass-kicking female in this movie. Harley will eventually end up with a squad, of sorts. There’s detective Renee Montoya (Rosie Perez), fast on the heels of the evil smoothie, Roman Sionis (Ewan McGregor), but never getting credit for her work (that always goes to her male partner). Then there’s deadpan super assassin Helena Bertinelli (Mary Elizabeth Winstead)—she prefers “the Huntress”—who wields a crossbow like a champ and whose ninja-like ways impress the livewire Harley. There’s the tweenage pickpocket Cassandra (Ella Jay Basco). Finally, there’s Black Canary (Jurnee Smollett-Bell, in a star-making performance), a beauty with a killer set of lungs who more-or-less operates a resistance from within Sionis’ deadly organization.

Birds of Prey is directed by a woman—Cathy Yan—and it shows. Before you jump to conclusions, it has nothing to do with the amount of action or violence—both are eye-popping and plentiful. But each of its female anti-heroines has her own agency. Although they are all sexy, their sexuality is never exploited. They are not defined by the men in their lives. And although they are technically criminals (Montoya notwithstanding), they ultimately have a shared humanity that makes them natural, if reluctant, allies.

Kinetic, silly, candy-colored, and hyperviolent, Birds of Prey is a serious treat for fans of comic book films. But it wouldn’t work without the equal parts goofy, hilarious, and unhinged performance of its lead. I’ll be back at the end of the year to remind Oscar voters just how great she is.

Moonlight ruined everything. I know that seems like an odd thing to say about a heartbreaking gem of a film that bucked the odds to best frontrunner La La Land and win the Best Picture Oscar—but that’s the thing. It gave us hope. It made us believe that the Oscars had turned over a new leaf and were actually willing to vote for beautiful, challenging, original works of art that didn’t necessarily center straight white people.

But, in fact, since Moonlight won two years ago, the Academy has chosen two rather accessible, middlebrow films, both which celebrated diversity in a somewhat pat and paternalistic way.

Two years ago was The Shape of Water. I liked the film well enough—and lord knows Guillermo del Toro is an Oscar-caliber director—but found its odd mixture of whimsy and menace slightly off-putting. What’s more, its message of embracing the “other” was simplistic to say the least. Still, that was a masterpiece compared to last year’s Green Book, one of the most baffling Oscar wins in recent years.

The point is, neither of those films was the best of its year—or even the best film nominated (last year gave us Roma and A Star is Born; the year before gave us the embarrassment of riches that was Phantom Menace, Call Me By Your Name, and Dunkirk).

Which brings us to this year. As the Oscar race has come into focus, it seems like two films are duking it out for Best Picture: Parasite and 1917.

Let me make something clear: I917 is a good film. I gave it a good review. I recommend it to friends. I liked it! But it’s no Parasite, a singular masterpiece that is one of the most original, smart, and genre-smashing films I’ve ever seen.

In this scenario, 1917 is the La La Land—the good film that also seems like the safe and predictable choice. Parasite is Moonlight (obviously, an even better comparison would be Roma, another foreign language film that was nominated for Best Picture, but let’s stick with my analogy here).

Were this 2018, the year after Moonlight won, I would’ve confidently chosen Parasite. But the Shape of Water and Green Book have mucked up the works. My head is spinning. I don’t know who to believe!

Anyway, with that confidence-inspiring introduction under my belt, here are my best guesses for this year’s Oscars, including how secure I am with each pick.

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Parasite, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, or The Irishman

How confident am I in my prediction? I had to make prediction, and a prediction was made.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Who will win: Sam Mendes

Who should win: Bong Joon-ho

How confident am I in my prediction? Moderately?

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio

How confident am I in my prediction: Is there a word greater than “extremely”?

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Who will win: Renée Zellweger
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan

How confident am I in my prediction? Does a bear relieve itself in the woods?

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Who will win: Brad Pitt

Who should win: Joe Pesci

How confident am I in my prediction? Bet the house confident

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Who will win: Laura Dern

Who should win: Scarlett Johannson

How confident am I in my prediction? Tattooing it on my arm confident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, Joker

Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Who will win: Jojo Rabbit

Who should win: The Irishman

How confident am I in my prediction? Not wildly

Best Original Screenplay

Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood

Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won, Parasite

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Marriage Story

How confident am I in my prediction? My palms are sweaty.

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

For Sama

Honeyland

Who will win: American Factory

Who should win: Honeyland

How confident am I in my prediction? I mean, the Obamas produced it.

International Film

Corpus Christi, Poland

Honeyland, North Macedonia

Les Miserables, France

Pain and Glory, Spain

Parasite, South Korea

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Parasite

How confident am I in my prediction? Brad Pitt confident

Best Cinematography

Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

Lawrence Sher, Joker

Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

Roger Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

How confident am I in my prediction? Not Brad Pitt confident, but confident all the same.

Animated Feature

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

I Lost My Body

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Klaus

Who will win: Toy Story 4

Who should win: Toy Story 4
How confident am I in my prediction? I don’t really see—checks notes—Klaus pulling the upset here.

The Oscars air this Sunday, February 9 on ABC. Check back to see how I did

Origin stories are baked into the mix of comic book super heroes—I’ve seen poor little Bruce Wayne watch his parents get shot and Peter Parker get stung by a radioactive spider more times than I can count. Villains can also get origin stories—we’ve seen versions of that in Suicide Squad and X-Men. But Joker is something completely different.

This is an origin story about a notorious DC Comics villain—a ridiculous character who dresses like a clown and giddily revels in violence and mayhem—treated with all the seriousness of a gritty psychological drama. Instead of taking its cues from Tim Burton, or even Christopher Nolan, director Todd Phillips (The Hangover) takes his cues from Taxi Driver, A Clockwork Orange, Fight Club, and, most explicitly, The King of Comedy. I suppose this was inevitable, as comic book movies have gotten more and more self-serious and the Joker character, in particular, has moved from camp (Cesar Romero) to horror (Heath Ledger), but I find the whole enterprise wearying and a little ridiculous.

Does the world really need another movie about a mentally ill loner who snaps? And, in particular, does it need one that comes with all the fanfare of a DC Comics “event” picture, one that will bring young men in to the theater to revel in its loser-turned-powerful-vigilante narrative?

Frankly, I find it difficult to evaluate Joaquin Phoenix’s performance as Joker, who goes by Arthur Fleck for most of the film. There’s a lot going on there. The actor lost a ton of weight for the role and he holds in his stomach to create a grotesque concave effect. (Grotesque is a buzzword for this film.) His hair is long and straggly. His face is lined. And then there’s his mannerisms, a never-ending series of tics and spasms. Arthur has a condition brought on by a brain injury where he sometimes laughs uncontrollably, especially when he’s agitated or nervous. It’s a sick, joyless laugh and Phoenix wields it best when Arthur attempts standup—a lifelong ambition—for the first time. He gets up on stage and begins to chortle and the audience is confused—is this part of the bit?—and then his laughter is mingled with tears of frustration and gasped snippets of dialogue as he tries to spit out a joke.

Later, when Arthur begins to transform into the Joker—taking his violent, cathartic revenge on a society that has trampled all over him—the laugh becomes more intentional and his body language more fluid. While not quite a merry prankster a la A Clockwork Orange’s Alex, he does begin to find some joy in his own villainy. Phoenix, a brilliant actor, is fully committed to this part—and his commitment is what makes the film palatable. But I still wasn’t sure if it was great acting or just a lot of acting.

Before he becomes the Joker, Arthur lives with his sickly mother (Frances Conroy) in a small, cramped apartment in Gotham City. He works as a clown-for-hire and worships the Johnny Carson-style talk show host Murray Franklin (played, in a meta bit of casting, by King of Comedy’s Robert De Niro). His greatest ambition is to get on the show. Suffice it to say, be careful what you wish for.

Joker is made with an undeniable amount of skill. Phillips clearly worships Martin Scorsese (his War Dogs was another film that toed the line between rip-off and homage) and he mimics his idol pretty expertly, right down to the extreme and sometimes sickening violence. But the thing is, we already have Taxi Driver and King of Comedy—and they’re freaking great. The notion of doing a comic book version of those films is nothing more than a gimmick—one that left a sour taste in my mouth.