I wanted to get that out of the way right off the bat because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding this year’s Academy Awards. Zoe Saldana is also almost definitely going to win Best Supporting Actress for her role in Emilia Pérez, unless her win is derailed by the controversy surrounding the film (more on that in a sec). And I’m feeling relatively comfortable picking Demi Moore as our Best Actress winner for The Substance.

But Best Picture? Best Actor? Best Director? A lot of these big categories are thrillingly up in the air. (You might even say their outcome is A Complete Unknown…*ducks.*)

It’s been a long time since we’ve had an “awards season” (one of the most cursed phrases known to man) so unpredictable. Just when you think you know which way the wind is blowing—Adrien Brody as Best Actor for his stellar work in The Brutalist, say—along comes a change in direction, like Timothée Chalamet getting an eleventh hour Screen Actors Guild nod for A Complete Unknown.

On top of that, there have been the aforementioned controversies. Some were clearly drummed up by competing studios (the disclosure that The Brutalist employed AI to zhuzz up Adrien Brody’s Hungarian accent), while others happened more organically: A journalist unearthed offensive tweets by Emilia Pérez’s Karla Sofía Gascón, the first trans woman ever to be nominated for Best Actress. Even before that, the film was controversial, with an increasingly loud online backlash for what many saw as its broad caricature of Mexican culture. (Not for nothing, the film’s director, Jacques Audiard, is French, and there are no Mexican actors in the main roles.)

Before those controversies emerged, Emilia Pérez was a veritable lock for Best International Film (its 13 nominations were most in this year’s field and made it the most nominated non-English film in Oscar history). Now it leaves the door open for an upset.

So, yeah, lots to chew on here. I’m going to do my best here with my predictions, but don’t put any money on my guesses. Except for Kieran. With him, go all in.

BEST PICTURE
Who will win: Anora
Who might win: Conclave, The Brutalist
Who should win: Anora
Final thoughts: As recently as two weeks ago, I was sure The Brutalist was going to win this thing. Then Anora won both the PGA and the DGA, making it a clear frontrunner. But, with the preferential ballot in play—meaning voters rank their choices—a much liked (if not quite loved) consensus pick could still snag the award. When you look at it that way, the universally loved Conclave—or hell, even Wicked or A Complete Unknown—could score an upset win.

BEST ACTOR
Who will win: Adrien Brody
Who might win: Timothée Chalamet
Who should win: Adrien Brody
Final thoughts: Chalamet was very good in A Complete Unknown and he’s been on an all-out charm offensive since the film’s release, hosting SNL (and serving as the musical guest), showing up to a Timothée Chalamet lookalike contest, wearing some fly (and, let’s face it, some fugly) fashion, and all-in-all being the happy-go-lucky goofball that he is on his press tour. Will his winning personality, combined with the (nothingburger, in my opinion) AI controversy propel him to a win? I still think Brody’s performance was just too good to deny, so I’m sticking with my pick.

BEST ACTRESS
Who will win: Demi Moore
Who might win: Mikey Madison
Who should win: Fernanda Torres from I’m Still Here
Final thoughts: Moore sealed her fate when she gave a stirring acceptance speech at the Golden Globes. Yes, she’s quite good in The Substance and her winning would be the feel-good moment of the Oscars, but if we’re being honest here, she gives the fifth best performance in this group (which also includes Cynthia Erivo and Gascón).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: Kieran Culkin
Who might win: Tom Wambsgans?
Who should win: Edward Norton
Final thoughts: I wish this race had been a little more contested. Norton is a heartbreaking Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown and Jeremy Strong is riveting as that snake Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. But I can’t begrudge Culkin his win. A Real Pain is a special movie and he is its beating heart.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Zoe Saldana
Who might win: Ariana Grande
Who should win: Zoe Saldana
Final thoughts: It was wonderful to see Saldana, an actress who has sometimes been buried under a sea of green makeup and CGI in films like Guardians of the Galaxy and Avatar, show the full range of her talents here. I think she has accrued enough momentum and good will over the years that her association with the now tainted Emilia Pérez won’t derail her win.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Sean Baker
Who might win: Brady Corbet
Who should win: Sean Baker
Final thoughts: I admire how Corbet made a searing American epic with a limited budget in The Brutalist—and I really loved that film—but Baker has been releasing banger after banger since 2015, and Anora is arguably his best film yet. It’s his time.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who will win: A Real Pain
Who might win: Anora
Who should win: Anora
Final thoughts: Most prognosticators are picking Anora here so I’m deviating from the pack. I feel like the Oscars are going to want to reward Jesse Eisenberg, who is beloved.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who will win: Conclave
Who might win: A Complete Unknown
Who should win: Conclave
Final thoughts: I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t love Conclave (although a few are a bit iffy on that surprise ending…I dug it). Feels like its year.

A FEW MORE PREDICTIONS:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: I’m Still Here
BEST EDITING: Conclave
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Porcelain War

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On the other hand, it has felt a bit like a slow march to the inevitable this season, hasn’t it? There are locks every year, but thanks to the juggernaut that is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer (an excellent and largely deserving film!), there are more than usual this year. I’d love to tell you to expect the unexpected, or prepare for upsets galore, or gird your loins, or whatever—but I can’t lie to you like that. Most of these categories are in the bag.

With that said, here are my (not that) bold predictions for the major categories.

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Who will win: Oppenheimer
How sure am I? I’d bet the farm, if I had one.
Who could win: No other film might win. Don’t blame the messenger.

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Who will win: Christopher Nolan
How sure am I? What’s surer than sure?
Who could win: Just for giggles, I’ll give Lanthimos a two-percent chance.

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Who will win: Cillian Murphy
How sure am I? I’d go all in, but maybe leave a bit of emergency cash in a lock box.
Who could win: Paul Giamatti has a chance, in the Dumb and Dumber, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?” sense of the phrase. But a chance all the same.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Who will win: Lily Gladstone
How sure am I? Pretty, pretty sure.
Who could win: Emma Stone could clearly take this. It’s been neck and neck between these two great actresses all awards season, but Gladstone definitely has the mo’.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Who will win: Robert Downey Jr.
How sure am I? Like, Michael Phelps at the Beijing Olympics sure.
Who could win: People are beginning to recognize how great Mark Ruffalo was in Poor Things. But…naaa.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Who will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph”
How sure am I? If I had a second farm, I’d bet that one, too.
Who could win: Honestly, no one. But for the sake of argument, Emily Blunt.

Okay, that’s the end of the categories I’m totally sure of. I’ll throw in a few more predictions that I’m relatively confident in below:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: American Fiction

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anatomy of a Fall

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Oppenheimer

BEST SONG: “What Was I Made For?”, Barbie

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 20 Days in Mariupol

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: The Zone of Interest

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

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