Moonlight ruined everything. I know that seems like an odd thing to say about a heartbreaking gem of a film that bucked the odds to best frontrunner La La Land and win the Best Picture Oscar—but that’s the thing. It gave us hope. It made us believe that the Oscars had turned over a new leaf and were actually willing to vote for beautiful, challenging, original works of art that didn’t necessarily center straight white people.

But, in fact, since Moonlight won two years ago, the Academy has chosen two rather accessible, middlebrow films, both which celebrated diversity in a somewhat pat and paternalistic way.

Two years ago was The Shape of Water. I liked the film well enough—and lord knows Guillermo del Toro is an Oscar-caliber director—but found its odd mixture of whimsy and menace slightly off-putting. What’s more, its message of embracing the “other” was simplistic to say the least. Still, that was a masterpiece compared to last year’s Green Book, one of the most baffling Oscar wins in recent years.

The point is, neither of those films was the best of its year—or even the best film nominated (last year gave us Roma and A Star is Born; the year before gave us the embarrassment of riches that was Phantom Menace, Call Me By Your Name, and Dunkirk).

Which brings us to this year. As the Oscar race has come into focus, it seems like two films are duking it out for Best Picture: Parasite and 1917.

Let me make something clear: I917 is a good film. I gave it a good review. I recommend it to friends. I liked it! But it’s no Parasite, a singular masterpiece that is one of the most original, smart, and genre-smashing films I’ve ever seen.

In this scenario, 1917 is the La La Land—the good film that also seems like the safe and predictable choice. Parasite is Moonlight (obviously, an even better comparison would be Roma, another foreign language film that was nominated for Best Picture, but let’s stick with my analogy here).

Were this 2018, the year after Moonlight won, I would’ve confidently chosen Parasite. But the Shape of Water and Green Book have mucked up the works. My head is spinning. I don’t know who to believe!

Anyway, with that confidence-inspiring introduction under my belt, here are my best guesses for this year’s Oscars, including how secure I am with each pick.

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Parasite, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, or The Irishman

How confident am I in my prediction? I had to make prediction, and a prediction was made.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Who will win: Sam Mendes

Who should win: Bong Joon-ho

How confident am I in my prediction? Moderately?

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio

How confident am I in my prediction: Is there a word greater than “extremely”?

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Who will win: Renée Zellweger
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan

How confident am I in my prediction? Does a bear relieve itself in the woods?

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Who will win: Brad Pitt

Who should win: Joe Pesci

How confident am I in my prediction? Bet the house confident

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Who will win: Laura Dern

Who should win: Scarlett Johannson

How confident am I in my prediction? Tattooing it on my arm confident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, Joker

Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Who will win: Jojo Rabbit

Who should win: The Irishman

How confident am I in my prediction? Not wildly

Best Original Screenplay

Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood

Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won, Parasite

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Marriage Story

How confident am I in my prediction? My palms are sweaty.

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

For Sama

Honeyland

Who will win: American Factory

Who should win: Honeyland

How confident am I in my prediction? I mean, the Obamas produced it.

International Film

Corpus Christi, Poland

Honeyland, North Macedonia

Les Miserables, France

Pain and Glory, Spain

Parasite, South Korea

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Parasite

How confident am I in my prediction? Brad Pitt confident

Best Cinematography

Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

Lawrence Sher, Joker

Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

Roger Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

How confident am I in my prediction? Not Brad Pitt confident, but confident all the same.

Animated Feature

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

I Lost My Body

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Klaus

Who will win: Toy Story 4

Who should win: Toy Story 4
How confident am I in my prediction? I don’t really see—checks notes—Klaus pulling the upset here.

The Oscars air this Sunday, February 9 on ABC. Check back to see how I did

Upstairs/downstairs has been a common theme in literature and film, documenting the tension between those who dwell in the fancy mansions and those who serve them. The masterful Korean director Bong Joon Ho has taken this concept to soaring new heights (and shocking depths) in his latest film, Parasite, a spellbinding social satire and thriller.

The Kim family live in a squalid basement apartment in the city. They eat junk food, scrounge for any money they can make, and have to perch in one small corner of the room (also their bathroom), phones raised in the air, to steal WiFi from a neighboring coffee shop (that is, when their phones have not been turned off).

One day, the Kim son, Ki-woo (Woo-sik Choi), is visited by Min, a college-attending friend of his, who makes an intriguing proposal: While Min studies abroad, Ki-woo can take over his job teaching English to the daughter of the very wealthy Park family. Ki-Woo wonders why Min doesn’t just ask one of his college buddies to do it? Min confesses that he’s in love with the Park daughter and trusts only his good friend to spend so much time with her.

So, with the help of his Photoshop-savvy sister, Ki-jung (So-dam Park), Ki-woo forges a fake diploma and makes his way to the Park residence, a stunning, modern home with floor-to-ceiling windows, a coolly minimalist aesthetic, and sweeping vistas. (There are three yapping dogs who pee indoors—the evidence is quickly disposed of by the maid—because rich people always seem to have those.) Ki-woo tries not to look overly impressed.

He meets the pretty and somewhat scatterbrained Mrs. Park (Yeo-yeong Jo), who leads him upstairs to her shy daughter (Ji-so Jung), who is immediately smitten by her new tutor. He returns the feelings, seemingly forgetting, or not caring about, the implied contract he made with Min.

Then there’s an apparently fortuitous twist of fate: Turns out there is another Park child who needs a tutor, the young Da-song (Hyun-jun Jung), a dreamy, artistic, overly fussed over boy, whom the family believes suffers from seizures. Thinking on his feet, Ki-woo says he might know someone—a friend of a friend’s cousin—who is an art teacher and art therapist. Should he put them in touch? Of course, he’s actually thinking of his languorous, cigarette smoking sister, who shows up to her interview acting like she owns the place.

You can see where it’s going from here—well, for a while, at least. The Kim family slowly begins to take over the household. The father, Ki-taek (Kang-ho Song), becomes the chauffeur to the slick Mr. Park (Sun-kyun Lee) and the mother (Hye-jin Jang) becomes the maid. Of course, to get these jobs, they need to find sneaky ways to get rid of the previous employees—the efficient maid (Jeong-eun Lee) is particuarly embedded, having lived in the house since before the Parks moved in—and we begin to understand that desperation can make people both resourceful and devious.

This is one of the things I loved so much about the film. The Kim family aren’t depicted as saints—we root for them because we like them (they’re a tight knit, darkly humorous bunch), not because their poverty bestows upon them any kind of purity. Likewise, the Park family are not evil. In fact, for much of the film they seem like very appealing people—wealthy but kind (“they’re nice because they’re rich,” Mrs. Kim grumbles)—simply unbothered by any pedestrian concerns. But later, as we get to know them more, we see that they wear their privilege a bit too comfortably. They seem to assume that anyone who is poor suffers from a failure of hygiene —and possibly morality. What begins as an employment bonanza turns into a kettle of simmering resentments, as the Kims begin to grok the way the Parks perceive them. And that’s when the real fun starts.

Parasite is stuffed with everything—gorgeous architecture, beautiful people, shocking violence, ingenious twists, wicked humor, and clear-eyed social commentary. The upstairs/downstairs conflict is a tale as old as time, but Bong Joon Ho puts all kinds of delicious and devilish new spins on it. Of course, with his title, he makes you think—who are the real parasites: the poor who glom onto the rich or the rich who heedlessly take from the poor? What’s more, aren’t we all parasites in a way, as we attempt to elevate (or keep) our status in society? The ubiquity of the phone in the film—it’s a way to plot schemes, get jobs, communicate surreptitiously, and at one point is literally wielded as a weapon—makes this very much a work of our time. Parasite is a stone-cold 21st-century classic.