Defensively, both teams are strong as well, with San Diego ranked ahead of Baltimore, at 8th in the NFL in total offensive yardage allowed. Although, the Ravens (18.9) allow slightly fewer points per game than the Chargers (19.6).

So, here’s the key difference as the weather turns cold and the winter winds howl and the grind for the playoffs shakes out in late November and December: The Ravens rank 5th in run defense while San Diego comes in at 13. Offensively, the running numbers are more stark: The Ravens, led by Justin Forsett, rank 7th in the NFL in rushing offense while San Diego comes in at 27th.

Potentially, that translates into another big day from Justin Forsett (good interview here) this Sunday on the heels of his career-best, 182-yard rushing game in New Orleans on Monday night. A journeyman, third-string back coming into this season, Forsett has displayed tremendous patience and cut-back running instincts behind new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s beloved zone-blocking scheme. In fact, Forsett’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry to date—far and away the top mark among leading NFL running backs—and is the main reason we think we are headed back to the playoffs and not San Diego.

Then again, Chargers fans can lay on the beach in January if their team doesn’t make the playoffs. So there’s that.

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