If the election were today, 54 percent of likely Maryland voters would cast their ballot for incumbent Republican Larry Hogan in the race for governor, according to the latest Goucher College poll. Thirty-two percent say they would vote for Democratic candidate Ben Jealous.

Green Party candidate Ian Schlakman and Libertarian candidate Shawn Quinn each received one percent of the support of likely voters.

Nine percent of voters remain undecided. Another quarter of likely voters indicated they could change their mind, leaving some hope for Jealous, who trails Hogan significantly in fundraising efforts and only began airing his first television commercial after the poll concluded. Interestingly, by a margin of 47 percent to 36 percent, likely voters say they value a governor who is more focused on bringing about change than ensuring stability.

Statewide, likely Republicans voters favor Hogan by 91 percent to 1 percent margin. Currently, registered Maryland Democratic voters only break for Jealous by 10 points—48 percent to 38 percent.

“The cross [tabulations] tell the story,” St. Mary’s College political science professor Todd Eberly commented on Twitter. “The lesser known GOP candidates running against Cardin, Frosh, and Franchot are getting crushed. But Hogan is receiving strong support from core Democratic voters.”

In the first half of the Goucher College survey released yesterday, a significant majority of Marylanders backed policies—typically viewed as progressive Democratic initiatives and supported by Jealous—while also strongly supporting Hogan. Seventy-one percent of Marylanders now back raising the statewide minimum wage to $15 an hour—up from 66 percent in February 2018—with 25 percent in opposition. By a margin of 54 percent to 33 percent, Marylanders hold a favorable opinion of a Medicare for All/single payer healthcare system. And 62 percent of Marylanders support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use.

The single, one-hour televised debate between the two candidates is scheduled for 7 p.m. Monday and will be broadcasted on Maryland Public Television.

“Ben Jealous has faced a months-long barrage of negative ads and has a substantial disadvantage in campaign fundraising—and it’s prevented him from defining his candidacy to the public and making gains on his opponent,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “Hogan’s electoral strength continues to be grounded in political moderation and the confidence the public has in him to handle economic issues. We have less than two months to see whether Hogan can maintain his bipartisan voting coalition or if Jealous can turnout enough progressives to make up the difference.”

The Jealous campaign appeared to suffer an unforced error earlier this week when they vetoed a Hagerstown Herald-Mail reporter from the upcoming MPT debate panel and then rescinded the move after an up road from other local media outlets.

The economy/jobs (25 percent), education (13 percent), racial/social justice (13 percent), President Donald J. Trump/national political concerns (13 percent), and healthcare (11 percent) were highlighted by likely voters as the most important issues in making a vote for governor.

Overall, 66 percent of likely voters expressed more confidence in Hogan in terms of economic development and job creation, 51 percent had more confidence in Hogan in handling education concerns, and 51 percent had more confidence in Hogan in regards to healthcare issues.

Sixty percent of likely voters said their opinions toward embattled President Trump, the GOP’s national standard-bearer, “will have no or little effect on their choice for governor.”

A Hogan endorsement, the poll found, holds less sway perhaps than his strong survey numbers suggest. Just 38 percent of likely voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the governor. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents Sen. Ben Cardin and Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh both maintain significant leads on their challengers.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters in the state indicate they will vote for Cardin and 17 percent for Republican challenger Tony Campbell. Independent Neal Simon captured eight percent support.

Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in the state indicate they will vote for Frosh and 26 percent for Republican challenger Craig Wolf.

“Ben Cardin and Brian Frosh are both in a strong position to easily win their reelection bids in November,” said Kromer. “They both earn strong support from their Democratic base, as well as a solid percent of independent voters.”

With record numbers over the eight days of early voting in Maryland—a 57 percent increase from the last primary election in 2014—polling places throughout the city experienced shorter lines and wait times today. When the polls opened at 7 a.m., local politicians and campaign staffers were there to eagerly greet voters for the 2018 Maryland primary election.

Del. Brooke Lierman—who is one-fourth of the district 46 team including senator Bill Ferguson, and delegates Luke Clippinger and Robbyn Lewis—was out bright and early to greet voters at William Paca Elementary School in Patterson Park.

Lierman also believes that this primary election may be the turning point for major change within the city. She says that residents are more focused than ever on all of the major issues in the city and are ready to put leaders in places they believe will do some good.

“It’s been good to see people coming out,” she said. “We face big challenges here in Baltimore City and there’s a lot of work to be done at the state level and we need proven leaders who have shown that they can be effective.”

The climate amongst voters at William Paca today was split. There were some who enthusiastically cast their votes for their favorite candidates, while others said they were simply fulfilling their civic duty, with no feelings one way or another about the pool of candidates.

“I feel good about who I voted for,” said Patterson Park resident Marissa Fleming after exiting the polling place. “I’m exercising my right, so my voice will be heard and I’m hoping they can do some good for the area.”

Earl Jones, who registered to vote today, did so because he believes this is the only way to help evoke change in his community. While he’s not particularly pleased with the campaigns he’s been following, he’s hopeful that there is a “diamond in the rough” among politicians running.

“We need someone that’s really going to work and be out here with us and active in all the communities,” he said. “I will be able to vote in November now, and I’m hoping that the right candidates make it to that ballot. I know [voting] is something that needs to be done to help my city.”

Eileen Del Valle, feels that it’s not only her civic duty to get out to the polls, but it’s also important to teach her 4-year-old daughter the importance of making her voice heard.

“She comes with me all the time, this is her third time now,” Del Valle said. “I want to get her excited about doing her duty early.”

With some races heating up in the city—namely the state’s attorney’s race with Ivan Bates suing State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby and Thiru Vignarajah for defamation—some voters have been turned off by the smear campaigns and negativity.

“It’s gotten pretty nasty, especially towards the end,” said Nelson Vasconcelos. “It just muddies the water. It affects my voting to a degree, I mean I know who I wasn’t voting for in the state’s attorney’s race, but it did affect who I ultimately voted for.”

To add another layer of drama to election day, a computer glitch at the Motor Vehicle Administration (MVA) has caused as many as 80,000 Marylanders to cast provisional ballots today. It affects residents who tried to change their address or party affiliation through the MVA since 2017. When these residents show up to vote, the correct information will not be available, however no one will be turned away. Those voters will be given a provisional ballot that will be counted on July 5.

On Monday, Democratic legislative leaders called for the immediate resignation of MVA administrator Christine Nizer, who oversees the agency that failed to forward voter information to the Maryland Board of Elections. Gov. Larry Hogan has ordered an audit to find out what went wrong.

“It’s absolutely unacceptable,” Lierman said of the glitch. “This is one of MVA’s core jobs—to make sure they are an entry point to registering. We will be having oversight hearings to figure out what happened and demanding that Gov. Hogan make some changes to make sure this doesn’t happen again. We need to make sure every single vote is counted.”

The polls will be open until 8 p.m. tonight.