The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and I have one word to say about them: Meh.

Not that there aren’t lots of great films nominated—2019 was an exceptionally strong year in film—but there were virtually no surprises, and not a single thrilling, wackadoodle, “Whoa, I didn’t see that coming!” choice.

Right out the gate, let me say this: The Oscars have made a push for diversity in recent years, expanding the Academy membership to include more women and people of color. Based on these nominations, they still have a long way to go.

Of the five director nominees, not a single one is female. This in a year where Céline Sciamma directed the ravishing Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Mati Diop directed the haunting Atlantics, and Greta Gerwig managed to make Little Women feel vital again.

As for the actors, Cynthia Erivo was nominated for her excellent work in Harriet, but Lupita Nyong’o, who so brilliantly negotiated a dual role in Us (one a gentrified mama bear protecting her cubs; the other a feral, vengeance-seeking underground woman) was absent. And I was rather shocked that Awkwafina, who won the Golden Globe for her great work in The Farewell, didn’t even get a nod, nor did the elegant Zhao Shuzhen, who played her beloved Nai-Nai. Likewise, not a single one of the actors from Parasite was nominated. Rather curious, for a film that racked up so many other awards.

So yeah…DO BETTER, Academy.

(On the bright side, Honeyland, the year’s best documentary and one of my favorite films, period, got a bit of a surprise nomination for both Best Documentary and Best International Film, so I’ll take my pleasures where I can get them.)

Okay, let’s break down some of the nominations a bit further…

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Parasite

Surprises: Not really any.

Snubs: Just to establish my terms: When I talk about snubs, I’m not talking about my personal preferences—which include the crazy genius of Uncut Gems and the aforementioned Portrait of a Lady on Fire—but films and performances that were generating a lot of pre-awards buzz and were considered real contenders. On that scale, there really aren’t any, although some thought the criminally entertaining Knives Out had a shot.

The contenders: At this point, it feels like a battle between Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood and 1917. While I really admired 1917, I don’t think it’s half the film OUATIH is. I’d also be beyond thrilled to see either Parasite or The Irishman win, but the odds do not appear to be in their favor.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Todd Phillips, Joker

Sam Mendes, 1917

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Surprises: Todd Phillips for Joker wasn’t exactly a shockeroo, but it was a little unexpected. He unseated some (stronger IMO) contenders, including Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) and Greta Gerwig (Little Women). Since Greta and Noah are a couple, they can huddle together and comfort each other with their Best Picture nods.
Snubs: Besides the two mentioned above, I would’ve been happy to see the great Spanish director Pedro Almodóvar nominated for Pain and Glory (seriously, on what planet is Todd Phillips a better director than Pedro Almodóvar…grrrrr). I didn’t really think that my girl Celine Sciamma was going to get a nod for Portrait of a Lady on Fire, but I allowed myself to briefly dream.

The contenders: This is a close one! At this point, I have a hunch that Sam Mendes is going to win for 1917, but I wouldn’t rule out Tarantino or Bong Joon-ho.

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Surprises: Jonathan Pryce snuck in for his role as Pope Francis in The Two Popes. That certainly wasn’t a shock, but he wasn’t a lock, either.

Snubs: I was really hoping my man Adam Sandler was going to get nominated for his nervous breakdown of a performance in Uncut Gems. Many people penciled in Rocketman’s Taron Egerton, fresh off his win at the Golden Globes, but that always seemed like a bit of a long shot. Christian Bale was also considered a contender for his strong work in Ford v Ferrari, but Pryce nabbed that final slot.

The contenders: It’s looking a lot like Joaquin Phoenix’s year. I’m marginally okay with that. I love Phoenix as an actor, but I happened to think his work in Joker was a bunch of nervous tics masquerading as a performance. Of this crop, DiCaprio would be my personal choice, but yeah, I’m not holding my breath.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Renée Zellweger, Judy

Surprises: None really, although I suppose Erivo over Nyong’o or Awkwafina is a tiny upset.

Snubs: I already said my piece about Nyong’o above. To me, she gave the female performance of the year.
The contenders: The grim, workmanlike march of Renée Zellweger toward her inevitable win has begun.

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Al Pacino, The Irishman

Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Surprises: Again, none really. (I told you these awards were meh.)

Snubs: Many, including myself, hoped that Song Kang-ho from Parasite would be acknowledged. Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse and Jamie Foxx in Just Mercy were two other names that had been getting some mild buzz.

The contenders: Pen it in, place your bets, take out a second mortgage on the house, Brad Pitt is winning this award.*

*Baltimore magazine does not condone betting and is certainly not responsible for any bets made as a result of this article.
**But seriously, he’s a lock.

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh, Little Women

Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Surprises: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell was definitely a bit of an upset. But who can ever begrudge the great Bates a ticket to the party?

Snubs: Two words: J and Lo. For what it’s worth, I voted for Lopez when I filled out my own Washington DC Area Film Critics Association ballot. I was also a bit surprised and disappointed not to see Zhao Shuzhen on this list.

The contenders: It’s early, but another near lock is Laura Dern for Marriage Story. I don’t see anyone upsetting her.

The Oscars are February 9 on ABC. Check out the complete list of the nominations here. For more Oscar-related content, including my final picks, watch this space.

I used to be really good at predicting the Oscars. I had a tidy formula: The picture had to be both accessible and grand in scale or intent; it had to flatter the voters or make them feel virtuous for voting for it. In 2014, a lot of my colleagues were predicting that Richard Linklater’s masterful Boyhood would win Best Picture. After all, it had swept most of the critic’s awards. But I had a strong hunch it wouldn’t. The film was too long, too personal, not quite accessible enough (I’d heard more than one person call it the dreaded B word—boring). I suspected that the far showier Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), a film that should’ve been disqualified for the title alone, would win, and I was right.

But all that changed in recent years, as the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag shook the Academy to its core and they were finally compelled to do the right thing and expand their membership to include more young people and people or color. Suddenly, the Oscars were less monolithic (a great thing!) and therefore less predictable.

I predicted that La La Land would win Best Picture in 2017 (and I was right for 30 confusing seconds, too!), but the artsy, meditative, beautiful Moonlight did. An indie coming of age film about a black queer youth? This was unprecedented, wonderful, and, yes, game changing.

All of this is my way of saying, well, I have no idea what’s going to happen this year. A few years ago, I would’ve assumed that my favorite film of the year—Roma—had no shot. Again, too long, too artsy, too personal. It has subtitles! And from friends I’d once again heard the “B” word. I also might’ve considered the fact that a Mexican director—Guillermo del Toro—had won Best Picture the previous year. Would the Oscars really award Mexican directors its highest honor two years in a row? But that’s old-school thinking. My suspicion is that this new class of Oscar voters doesn’t care about trends or legacies. They have good, varied taste and are simply looking for the best picture and performances (how they overlooked Ethan Hawke for First Reformed still remains a mystery).

Okay, let’s take a look at how the race is shaping up with picks for some of the main categories. Again, I know nothing.

BEST PICTURE

A Star is Born

BlackKklansman

Green Book

Roma

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Vice

Who will win: Roma

Who might win: God help me, Green Book

Who should win: Roma

Analysis: Honestly, this is a pretty mediocre lineup, with one truly great film (Roma), four genuinely good ones (A Star is Born, BlackKklansman, Black Panther, The Favourite), and three duds (Green Book, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody). There were so many better films this year that should’ve been nominated (Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, If Beale Street Could Talk, just off the top of my head). If any of my top five wins, I’ll be okay with it. Watch out if one of the bottom three takes the gold. Somebody at the Academy will be receiving a STERNLY WORDED LETTER.

DIRECTING

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Spike Lee, BlackKklansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón

Who might win: Spike Lee

Who should win: Alfonso Cuarón

Analysis: Can you believe that this is Spike Lee’s first nomination for Best Director? That is literally criminal. I’d be happy to see him take home a long overdue gold guy, but much as I admired BlackKklansman, I don’t think it’s his best work. It would be tantamount to Scorsese finally winning for The Departed.

ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE

Christian Bale, Vice

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Who will win: Christian Bale

Who might win: Rami Malek

Who should win: Bradley Cooper

Analysis: This is my no guts, no glory pick. Most prognosticators are picking Malek to win for his entertaining portrayal of Freddie Mercury. But it would be rare for a television actor, in his first major film role, to take home such a big award. Then again, that’s old school Oscar prognosticator thinking. Aaaah! I just can’t help myself!

(P.S. Both Ethan Hawke, in First Reformed, and Joaquin Phoenix, in You Were Never Really Here, gave better performances than either of the two frontrunners. #SorryNotSorry)

ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE

Glenn Close, The Wife

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yalitza Aparacio, Roma

Who will win: Glenn Close

Who might win: Olivia Colman

Who should win: Melissa McCarthy

Analysis: What a stellar lineup! Five great performances and any one of these women deserve to win. I’m partial to Melissa McCarthy and Olivia Colman. That being said, her royal Glenn-ness is long overdue and The Wife really allows her to shine.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlackKklansman

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Who will win: Mahershala Ali

Who might win: Richard E. Grant

Who should win: Richard E. Grant

Analysis: Ali is a great actor, but I wasn’t a fan of this film—the script was too facile. But Ali has cleaned up all the pre-Oscar awards so this one is a bit of a no-brainer. That being said, Grant—who gives a career best performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?—is killing the Oscar campaign season, charming interviewers and fanboying over Barbra Streisand. Could he sneak in for the upset? Fingers crossed!

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Amy Adams, Vice

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Who will win: Regina King

Who might win: Rachel Weisz

Who should win: Rachel Weisz

Analysis: The pleasant surprise here is de Tavira, who was so wonderful in Roma and didn’t get a lot of pre-Oscar award-season love. But Rachel Weisz is everything in The Favourite, one of the most smart, perfectly calibrated, and memorable performances of the year (although arguably she and Stone are actually co-leads along with Colman). I’d also love to see Amy Adams to get off the schneid, as they say in sports, and finally win her first Oscar but not for Vice. Never for Vice. That being said, King’s work in If Beale Street Could Talk is the essence of a supporting part. She absolutely shines in a few key scenes. Who could argue with this brilliant actress snatching the gold?

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

Who will win: The Favourite

Who might win: Ugh, Green Book

Who should win: Can You Forgive Me? (But since it’s not nominated, First Reformed.)

Analysis: I’d really love to see Paul Schrader win for his searching, deeply felt First Reformed script, but I’m not holding my breath. But I really dug The Favourite, so I can hardly complain here.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlackKklansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Who will win: BlackKlansman

Who might win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Who should win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Analysis: My guess? Spike won’t win Best Director and this will be his (not too shabby) consolation prize. An aside: Isn’t it wild that A Star is Born—once heralded as Best Picture frontrunner—might walk away with nothing more than a “Best Song” win?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Cold War

Roma

Shoplifters

Capernaum

Never Look Away

Who will win: Roma

Who might win: Cold War

Who should win: Roma

Analysis: I confess I’ve only seen three of these contenders (Roma, Cold War, and Shoplifters). All are varying degrees of good and great (I was disappointed that Lee Chang-dong’s Burning didn’t make the cut), but Roma is the film of the year. My only concern: Will voters who picked it in the Best Foreign Language Film category feel they’ve been-there-done-that when it comes times to vote for Best Picture?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning; This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

Who will win: Free Solo

Who could win: RBG

Who should win: Minding the Gap

Analysis: How on earth is Won’t You Be My Neighbor not on this list? That’s it. That’s the analysis.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider Man: Into the Spiderverse

Who will win: Spider Man: Into the Spiderverse

Who might win: Incredibles 2

Who should win: Spider Man: Into the Spiderverse

Analysis: Talk about a come-from-behind win (probably). Barely a month ago, Spiderverse wasn’t even in the conversation. Then it came out, blew everyone’s collective minds, and is now poised for the win against some formidable competition.

Moonlight changed everything. Predicting the best picture at the Oscars used to be a fairly straightforward task. You looked for several things: A film that is epic in scale. One that is literary or historic—bonus for lots of human suffering. A film that is socially aware, but never in a truly provocative way. The film should be smart, but accessibly so—surrealism and ambiguity are big no-nos. It should have impressive, even splashy production values. Bonus points if it stars beloved actors or established directors. And if it celebrates Hollywood and the joys of movie making, all the better. Also, and not to put too fine a point on it, it should generally be heteronormative and the cast should be mostly white.

From there, you take the film that ticks the most of those boxes and—ta da! You’ve built yourself an Oscar winner!

But Moonlight didn’t really tick any of those boxes—not only did it feature a black, gay hero, it was relatively low-budget, and directed by a man who was certainly a rising star, but hardly a household name. What’s more, it was moody, evocative, subtle. Subtle things never win Oscars! It was my favorite film of 2016 (along with Manchester By the Sea), but I never thought it was going to win best picture. I had La La Land, all the way. (And so did Faye Dunaway, apparently.)

So why did Moonlight win? Did the Academy suddenly develop more sophisticated taste? Perhaps. Most likely it was attributable to the influx of new Academy members—a much younger, more diverse, and presumably more open-minded group. This new group throws everything out of whack, gloriously I might add. So I’m going to have to recalibrate my Oscar radar. And maybe the notion of an “Oscar film”—that specific type of sturdy, middlebrow film that the Academy always goes for—is gone forever. Suddenly, predicting Oscars feels like a free-for-all. Whee!

With that being said, here are my best guesses for a few of the major categories. But seriously, you’re on your own here, people. I’m winging it!  
 

Best Picture

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
 

Who should win: Call Me By Your Name or Phantom Thread

Who could win: Get Out; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

WHO WILL WIN: THE SHAPE OF WATER
 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Who should win: Frances McDormand

Who could win: Honestly I don’t see any real threats to McDormand here

WHO WILL WIN: FRANCES MCDORMAND
 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread

Timotheé Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
 

Who should win: Timotheé Chalamet

Who could win: Timotheé Chalamet; Daniel Day-Lewis

WHO WILL WIN: GARY OLDMAN

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
 

Who should win: Laurie Metcalf or Lesley Manville

Who could win: Laurie Metcalf; Lesley Manville

WHO WILL WIN: ALLISON JANNEY

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
 

Who should win: Willem Dafoe

Who could win: Willem Dafoe

WHO WILL WIN: SAM ROCKWELL

Best Animated Feature

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

The Breadwinner

The Boss Baby
 

Who should win: The Boss Baby (Just kidding—Coco)

Who could win: I don’t see any real challengers here

WHO WILL WIN: COCO 

Best Cinematography

Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049

Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour

Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water

Rachel Morrison, Mudbound

Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
 

Who should win: Rachel Morrison

Who could win: Dan Laustsen; Hoyte Van Hoytema

WHO WILL WIN: ROGER A. DEAKINS

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out
 

Who should win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who could win: Christopher Nolan

WHO WILL WIN: GUILLERMO DEL TORO

Best Documentary Feature

Faces Places

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

Abacus: Small Enough To Jail

Icarus
 

Who should win: Faces Places

Who could win: Icarus; Last Men in Aleppo

WHO WILL WIN: FACES PLACES 

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman

Loveless

On Body and Soul

The Insult

The Square
 

Who should win: Loveless

Who could win: The Square

WHO WILL WIN: A FANTASTIC WOMAN 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game

James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name

Scott Frank and James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan

Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist

Dee Rees, Virgin Williams, Mudbound
 

Who should win: James Ivory

Who could win: Hmmm . . . not seeing any real challengers here

WHO WILL WIN: JAMES IVORY 

Best Original Screenplay

Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Emily V. Gordon Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
 

Who should win: Jordan Peele

Who could win: This category is pretty wide open, I could almost see anyone taking it. But Martin McDonagh poses the biggest threat.

WHO WILL WIN: JORDAN PEELE

The Oscars air Sunday, March 4 at 8 p.m. on ABC