Four months after Congressman Elijah E. Cummings passed away, a special primary is being held to fill his vacant seat on Tuesday, February 4. The 7th district seat has long been a Democratic stronghold, and its next holder will continue to build upon Cummings’ legacy. There have been a number of candidates, 24 Democrats and eight Republicans, who have declared their intention to run for the seat in the special election, for which voters can view polling places here.

“The fact that there’s 32 candidates is extraordinary,” says Matthew Crenson, a retired Johns Hopkins University political science professor and author of several books about Baltimore. “It suggests a degree of political entropy or disintegration.”

Crenson also speculates that the large candidate pool might be due to the fact that the district expands beyond the city. The winner of each primary will become the party nominee for a special election to finish the remainder of Cummings’ term on April 28, the same day as Maryland’s primary elections.

However, since a regular primary will be held that same day, a candidate could lose the special primary today but still become the party nominee for a November election to determine a full two-year term congressperson.

As it stands, the presumptive favorites in tomorrow’s special primary are democrats including Congressman Cummings’ widow Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, former NAACP leader Kweisi Mfume, and Maryland state senator Jill Carter.

But Crenson says that there is not much that wouldn’t surprise him. The large field could even open the door for someone like University of Baltimore law professor F. Michael Higginbotham, a political unknown who has had a heavy television presence. Delegates Talmadge Branch and Terri Hill of Districts 45 and 12, respectively in the Maryland House of Delegates, are also in the running.

Though it is likely to be a tough climb, among the eight Republican challengers is Liz Matory, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for Congress against Dutch Ruppersberger in 2018, and Kimberly Klacik—who runs a nonprofit to assist disadvantaged women and has increased her media profile with appearances on Fox News and other conservative media networks.

“The winner will win with a relatively low percentage of the vote—maybe even with a minority or mere plurality,” Crenson says. “What would surprise me most is if somebody managed to win with a majority of the vote.”

Here, we break down the three Democratic frontrunners and the developments in their campaigns since they first entered the race.

Kweisi Mfume

Experience: Mfume, who held the 7th District Congressional seat from 1987-1996 before Congressman Cummings, was a national NAACP leader from 1996-2004. After an unsuccessful campaign for Senate in 2006, losing out to Ben Cardin, he moved on to his current roles as chairman of the board of regents at Morgan State University and as vice chair on the board of Research America.

Platforms: Mfume has said that his tenure would be marked by improving education and eradicating drugs. During his earlier congressional tenure, he was selected to chair the Congressional Black Caucus, fought for prorated rents in public housing on the basis of real income rather than net income, and fought against discrimination in its many forms.

In mid-January, a Baltimore Sun story highlighted previous sexual harassment and nepotism allegations during his leadership of the NAACP. Mfume has denied being forced out of his position.

Predictions: Despite the allegations, he remains a leading candidate for the seat. Mfume has also drawn strong female support—Cummings’ sisters have even endorsed their late brother’s longtime friend who spoke at their brother’s funeral.

“I sort of expected that one or another candidate would emerge by this time as the universal favorite but that’s not happened—I thought it would be Mfume,” Crenson says. “The fact that he’s held this seat before and has name recognition helps him. I wouldn’t count him out at all.”

Maya Rockeymoore Cummings

Experience: Rockeymoore Cummings is not running off the strength of her husband’s name alone. She has government experience, previously serving in the late 1990s as the chief of staff to former New York Rep. Charles B. Rangel. Prior to that, she also served in the House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee as a professional staffer.

In 2018, when Councilman Cummings was suffering from health problems, Rockeymoore Cummings dropped out of the race for Maryland governor. Later that year, she was elected as the chair of the Maryland Democratic Committee, though she was criticized for the party’s overspending during her tenure.

Platforms: In her campaign announcement in November, Rockeymoore Cummings pledged to tackle gun violence and education disparities, as well as expand social security.

Predictions: Despite her name recognition, Rockeymoore Cummings has failed to pull ahead in the race in the way many expected when she announced her candidacy.

“She is not perceived by many Baltimoreans as a local person,” Crensons says. “There’s also the perception that there’s a coolness between her and the Cummings family.”

Jill P. Carter

Experience: Senator Carter represents Maryland’s 41st legislative district. She is the daughter of the late civil rights leader Walter P. Carter and formerly acted as director of the Baltimore Office of Civil Rights. Given her resume, she is viewed by many of her progressive supporters as a potential successor to Cummings on civil rights issues.

There are currently no women serving in Maryland’s congressional delegation, and if elected, Carter—or Rockeymoore Cummings—would be the first woman to hold this representative seat.

Platforms: In announcing her candidacy, Carter said that, if elected, she hopes to fight for issues she has long been passionate about, including corrupt policing, education, mass incarceration, and eradicating lead from homes and water.

Predictions: This past weekend, Carter picked up an endorsement from the Baltimore Sun editorial board, who commended her advocacy in the criminal justice system and longtime service of the city. As Crenson sees it, Carter’s candidacy marks an inflection point that could be an illustration of where Democratic politics in the state of Maryland stand nationally.

“She’s a Bernie Sanders voice,” Crensons says. “There are probably many Baltimoreans who think we need something like that now—especially given the stagnation of most people’s incomes and the presidency of Donald Trump. For many people, Jill Carter represents something new.”

Before sunrise on Friday, thousands of mourners, some of whom woke up as early as 4 a.m., boarded shuttle buses heading to New Psalmist Baptist Church to attend the funeral of Congressman Elijah Cummings—the passionate Baltimore leader and civil rights advocate who passed away due to ongoing health challenges last week at the age of 68.

“I made it!” one woman said as she climbed the stairs of a bus leaving from one of the surrounding lots in Lochearn. “I always voted for him. This morning I said, ‘I’m not going to miss this.’ This is history.”

As the bus pulled up to the front of the church—where Cummings regularly attended services—just before dawn, a guard of honor marched by thousands of people who had already formed a line that snaked around the entrance and adjacent parking lots.

“I actually did a dry run yesterday to make sure I knew where the church was,” said Cheryl McLeod of Howard County, who was in line just after 7 a.m. “I also went down to the Capitol yesterday and saw him. That’s how much I really honor his trailblazing and fortitude.”

The funeral at New Psalmist followed a memorial at Morgan State University, where Cummings sat on the board of directors, and a public viewing at the U.S. Capitol, where the Congressman became the first African American elected official to lie in state earlier this week. It brought together community members who supported Cummings’ many initiatives in Baltimore and beyond—including affordable health care, equal education opportunities, and social justice issues—as well as friends and colleagues who had personal connections to him.

“I always enjoyed making him sweet potato pies,” said a woman who asked to be identified as Mrs. Copeland, who met Cummings years ago through New Psalmist. “I would take them to his office downtown. He helped me, as a single parent, get my son through college. We just love him, everybody that knew him loves him.”

Phyllis Ayres, Cummings’ neighbor of 20 years and a retired administrative assistant at Maryvale High School, remembers introducing him at the school’s graduation in 2010.

“I’m very fond of him,” she said. “Every time I called him to be a guest speaker, he was always on board. He was a man with great character—that’s why I’m here.”

Friday’s service was also attended by a number of political dignitaries, including former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Baltimore native and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Gov. Larry Hogan, former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and U.S. Sens. Ben Cardin, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Amy Klobuchar.

In addition to many of these politicians, Cummings’ daughters, Adia and Jennifer, and his wife, Maya Rockeymoore Cummings—as chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party, she is expected to be among those who will run for her late husband’s seat—delivered remarks inside the church.

“I have come here today to say two simple words: thank you,” Rockeymoore Cummings said. “Thanks to everyone in the 7th Congressional District. He loved Baltimore City. Baltimore, thank you for everything you did to make him who he was, and for allowing him to rise to greatness.”

Rockeymoore Cummings went on to address President Trump’s attacks on Cummings and the city of Baltimore during the final months of his life.

“While he carried himself with grace and dignity in all public forums, it hurt him,” she said. “One thing you do not know about Congressman Cummings is that he was a man of soul and spirit. He was very empathetic. It was one of the sources of his ability to be a public servant and a man of the people. . . He would have told me, ‘Maya, I don’t want a service at the U.S. Capitol,’ but I felt very strongly that they were trying to tear him down. And we needed to make sure that he went out with the respect and dignity that he deserved.”

Obama followed by saying, “Elijah’s life validates the things we tell ourselves about what’s possible in this country. Not what’s guaranteed, but possible. The possibility that our destinies are not preordained, but rather through our works and dedication.”

Also in attendance was U.S. Congressman and civil rights leader John Lewis, who described Cummings’ passing last week as “a tremendous blow to the struggle to build a fair and just society in America.”

“They all appreciate [Cummings] as much as we do, that’s why they’re here,” said Arnold Landon, sporting an “Obama for President” hat while waiting in line to enter the 4,000-seat church, which was at full capacity by 9:30 a.m. Landon recalled fighting for civil rights in Baltimore alongside Cummings decades ago, mentioning sit-ins they both attended on Lexington Street downtown. “If it wasn’t for Cummings, Obama wouldn’t be able to become president. It started with equal accommodations and equal rights. Politics and civil rights—they go together.”

Not far behind Landon stood Lydia Alexander alongside her 10-year-old daughter, Shylah.

“He’s done so much for the community,” said Shylah, a fifth grader at Margaret Brent Elementary/Middle. “I really thought I should be here. I will always remember that godsend.”