Larry Hogan Becomes First Republican Governor to Be Re-Elected Since 1954.
In convincing fashion, Larry Hogan became the first Republican governor in Maryland in more than 60 years to win a second term Tuesday.

Not since Theodore McKeldin in the 1950s had voters in the state awarded a Republican a second four-year stay in the Governor’s Mansion, but Hogan’s victory hardly came as a surprise. The popular Anne Arundel County-based real estate developer, who survived a well-publicized bout with cancer in his first term, led Democratic challenger Ben Jealous by double digits throughout the general election season.

Pledging to hold the line on taxes and create a more business-friendly climate in the state, Hogan attracted more than enough centrist and conservative Democrats to his GOP base to easily overcome a 2-1 Democratic registration advantage in the state.

“Let me remind you that Maryland has always been a state of middle temperate,” Hogan said in his acceptance remarks, adding his administration has sought a bi-partisan approach to governing since its outset four years ago. “I’m proud we are setting an example for rest of America.

Jealous, the former head of the NAACP, had finally gained some momentum in the last couple of weeks of the campaign, but for all intents and purposes, the race was decided shortly after the primaries, according to political observers. “The Republican Governors Association and Hogan ads defined Jealous, who struggled with fundraising, as risky and extreme before he ever responded,” said Goucher College political science professor and pollster Mileah Kromer. “When you allow your opponent to define you in politics, that’s never a good thing.”

“Ben Jealous tried very hard to make the election a referendum on Donald Trump, and then a referendum on health care and the minimum wage, but there never was a defining message,” said Todd Eberly, a St. Mary’s College political science professor. “It was a scattershot approach and just too little, too late.”

Baltimore County Elects Johnny O.
In Baltimore County, which Hogan carried by a wide margin, voters overwhelming elected Democratic Johnny Olszewski, who captured 57 percent of the tally, and defeated Republican Al Redmer.

Olszewski, running on a progressive platform, won a three-way Democratic primary battle in the county by just 17 votes before besting Redmer, who had received the enthusiastic backing of Hogan. The victory marks something of a comeback for Olszewski, a former teacher and Baltimore County state delegate from Dundalk, who lost a bid for the state senate four years ago.

“He’s been to every church and met with every organization and people have gotten to know him and they trust him,” said Shirley Supik, an Olszewski supporter from Woodlawn, at a rally over the weekend. “He’s a man who listens.”

“Education is a priority with him,” added her husband, Jeff Supik, 66, a former general contractor. “He’s shown that and it’s the number one issue in this county.”

There Was (Mostly) a Blue Wave in Maryland.
Hogan’s strong approval ratings translated into 56 percent of the tally in the gubernatorial race, but did not produce any coattails, however. Democrats managed to flip two important suburban county executive seats as well as maintaining their veto-proof majority in the General Assembly.

The GOP went into Election Day with hopes, albeit against long odds, of turning five state senate seats from blue to red—their “Drive for Five” effort—which would’ve enabled Hogan and Republican party to redraw the state’s legislative districts in 2020.

Democratic Attorney General Brian Frosh, who has clashed with Hogan, in particular in regards to federal lawsuits directed at the President Trump, won reelection by nearly 30 points over Republican challenger Craig Wolf.

As expected, Democratic U.S. Senator Ben Cardin also easily won reelection.

Nationally, the Democrats recaptured control of the House of Representatives, but the GOP kept its advantage in the U.S. Senate.

In terms of the Maryland congressional seats up for grabs, there were no upsets in the state. Democrats held onto all seven of their seats in the House, with incumbents Dutch Ruppersberger, Elijah Cummings, Jon Sarbanes, Anthony Brown, Steny Hoyer, and Jaime Raskin all easily winning reelection. In the 6th congressional district, Democrat David Trone won, replacing John Delaney, who did not pursue reelection in order to launch a presidential campaign.

Republican Andy Harris, the lone GOP representative in the Maryland delegation, coasted to reelection in the 1st congressional district.

Democratic Upsets in Howard and Anne Arundel Counties.
In Howard and Anne Arundel counties—both of which Hogan won handily—incumbent Republican county executives unexpectedly lost to their Democrat challengers. In Howard County, County Councilman Calvin Ball upset Allan Kittleman. In Anne Arundel County, Steuart Pittman, a farmer and community organizer, surprised Steve Schuh.

Ball will be the first African-American Howard County executive and plans to invest in education, environmental sustainability, and the opioid crisis.

Of course, the 300-pound elephant in the campaign is managing the $50 million plan to mitigate flooding in Ellicott City. Kittleman announced the plan in August and Ball voted against the three funding bills because his amendments were not included. Ball told The Sun on Tuesday that he would “take time to evaluate all plans in progress for effectiveness and efficiency . . . and make a decision from there.”

Olszewski, Ball, and Pittman’s victories could put them on the early list of potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates for 2022. For Kittleman and Schuh, viewed as possible Republican gubernatorial contenders in four years, their losses make any future Annapolis run more difficult.

Outside West Baltimore’s Shake & Bake Family Fun Center, 15 brand new, all-terrain Department of Public Works litter vehicles line the sidewalk. Courtesy of a $500,000 Keep Maryland Beautiful grant from the state, the fleet of golf-cart size street sweepers is being unveiled this morning as the Cardinal Shehan school choir—of Good Morning America fame—kicks off what is billed as Governor Larry Hogan’s “regional cabinet meeting” inside the iconic roller rink.

“Cardinal Shehan school choir—incredible. Wow. I mean they put me in a hard spot,” a beaming Hogan exclaims after a rousing rendition of “Rise Up.” “I’m not sure how you follow anything like that choir.”

The governor has brought his top officials with him, including Pete Rahn, head of the Department of Transportation, and Ken Holt, the state’s housing secretary, but the event has the unmistakable feel of a crowd-for-hire campaign rally. Those cramming into the Shake & Bake—mostly white, largely made up of Maryland government employees in suits and dresses sporting state ID badges—break into applause and standing ovations during the governor’s remarks, while he touts administration efforts in the city. Even the majority of the police officers on hand appear to be from Annapolis.

Tellingly, before Keiffer Mitchell, the former city councilman and current senior advisor to the governor, introduced Hogan, he began his remarks by describing the black renaissance history of Pennsylvania Avenue and the story behind the roller rink, which was started decades ago by former Colt Glenn “Shake & Bake” Doughty.

Neither “The Avenue” nor the roller rink needs an introduction to West Baltimoreans.

It would be easy, in other words, to dismiss the entire orchestration as mere political theater (Hogan implied it was a historic occasion). It is, after all, taking place on the first day of early primary voting, and the governor, without a Republican opponent, is spending the entire day in the heart of Democratic Baltimore, taking headlines away from the opposition. Except, the handful of invitees who live or work in West Baltimore and speak on the governor’s behalf are clearly impressed by Hogan’s outreach and sincerity, including Shionta Somerville, principal at nearby Carver Vocational-Technical High School. Not just today, but over the past four years.

“After his second visit [to Carver], people asked me, ‘How is the Governor?’” Somerville says. “Not people at school but friends of mine outside of school,” she adds with a smile, garnering nervous laughter from the audience, which is fully cognizant that a white Republican governor isn’t likely to engender much affection in heavily Democratic West Baltimore. “I say he’s just down to earth and very charming. I’ve never been very big on politics, but I’m big on people.”

As unlikely as it would’ve sounded at this time four years ago, when he trailed Democratic nominee Anthony Brown by double digits in the polls, Larry Hogan—a first-time Republican elected official in one of the bluest states in the country—is now the second-most-popular governor in the United States. According to a Morning Consult poll this summer, 68 percent of Maryland voters approve of the job Hogan is doing. Only Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, another Republican in a blue state, is more popular, by a single percentage point.

Of course, despite Somerville’s affection and kind words, and Hogan’s genuine talent for retail politics and relationship building, he is not going to carry Baltimore City this November. The overwhelming 10-1 Democratic registration advantage, and his original sins in the eyes of many in the city—cancelling the $2.9 billion Red Line transit project, breaking the decade-in-the-works $1.5 billion State Center redevelopment deal, holding back school funding weeks after the Freddie Gray uprising—are simply a bridge too far.

Also: Larry Hogan doesn’t need to win Baltimore. He didn’t in 2014. With broad support in the state’s suburban and rural counties, he just needs to mitigate the damage. So when Baltimore’s second-highest-ranking elected official, City Council President Jack Young, refuses to answer a reporter’s query about whether he will support the incumbent Republican governor or the Democratic nominee—it should ring alarms among the Democratic party faithful hoping to elect nominee Ben Jealous.

“You heard what people said. Look at his poll numbers,” Young says after offering words of praise for the governor in the lobby of the Shake & Bake as the Hogan event winds down. “I don’t have to tell you [who I’m voting for],” adds Young, suggesting he’s either a genuine fan of the governor, intimidated by his approval ratings, or both. “Who are you voting for?”

By now, most Maryland voters at least know the outline of Larry Hogan’s backstory. That his father, Larry Sr., was a U.S. Congressman and Prince George’s County Executive (also a former FBI agent and one of the first Republicans to come out against Richard Nixon after Watergate). That Hogan worked for his father and held a top appointment in the Republican administration of former Governor Bob Ehrlich, a friend since the pair were in their early 20s. That he was—and still is—the owner of a successful real estate company (while serving as governor, Hogan turned over leadership of his company to his brother and put his assets into a trust). And that he’s a self-described workaholic who didn’t marry until he was 48.

Less well known when he ran four years ago was that he’d run twice for his father’s old congressional seat and lost, which—silver lining here—meant he didn’t have to defend a voting record on Capitol Hill. It also effectively allowed Hogan to position himself as a political newbie in 2014 and an Anne Arundel County “small businessman.” He was anything but, obviously. He served as Maryland chairman of Youth for Reagan and four times as a delegate to the Republican National Convention, displaying sharp political instincts and a knack for savvy messaging from the outset of his stunning upset campaign. Hogan Companies have completed more than $2 billion in real estate deals since they were founded in 1985 and the governor has made roughly $2.4 million in combined corporate earnings and government salary since taking office.

Hogan had begun planting the seeds of what ultimately became his campaign when he launched a Facebook page in 2009 with the name Change Maryland and started trolling Governor Martin O’Malley—“Owe Malley” in red circles—over increases in state taxes, tolls, and fees, and the cost of regulations to businesses. That was five years before he announced his intent to run for governor. “Just a genius use of social media,” says Eberly, political science professor at St. Mary’s College in Southern Maryland. “I can’t think of anything like it before or since.”

In a recent interview at the Governor’s Mansion, Hogan says he was just frustrated at the time by the direction in Annapolis and didn’t necessarily intend to run for office himself. Borrowing from the opposition playbook, he took to Facebook after witnessing the Barack Obama’s groundbreaking use of social media. “It started to grow very quickly,” Hogan recalls. “I couldn’t find anyone I thought could win. [So], I decided to [jump in].”

Later, Hogan memorably—some would say cynically—dubbed an EPA-mandated, storm water management fee initiated by O’Malley “the Rain Tax,” honing his anti-tax message down to a three-word mantra. Avoiding hot-button social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage that could potentially plague a conservative candidate in Maryland, Hogan—an Irish Catholic who personally doesn’t support the right to choose and says he has “evolved” on gay marriage—simply declared the subjects settled.

Hogan also vowed not to go after the new gun-control laws passed in the state under O’Malley in the wake of the Sandy Hook tragedy, and he has kept those promises. He even went further after the Parkland school shooting announcing he would support a “red flag” bill that would allow judges to temporarily require people to surrender firearms if they are deemed a danger to themselves or others.

Four years later, in his reelection campaign, he’s plugging positive job growth numbers in the state (although Maryland’s unemployment rate remains above the national average and neighboring Virginia and Pennsylvania), and his successful efforts to roll back tolls and push the first day of public school to after Labor Day.

“It’s been a pendulum swing from O’Malley,” says Jennifer Duffy, of the Cook Political Report, a national independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections. “Hogan doesn’t have an enormous record of accomplishment, and he’s not putting forth a grand vision for the second term, but he’s not raising taxes and he’s focused on deregulating rules for businesses. Maryland’s one of the wealthiest states in the country, has high-ranking public schools, and that’s enough for a lot voters who see no reason to change course.”

The attacks on O’Malley and the Rain Tax have also returned. The Maryland road signs Hogan changed after taking office still say, “We’re Open for Business.”

Hogan’s political success as a Republican governing a blue state is also something of a phenomenon, rarely seen in recent years outside of New England. (See Massachusetts governors Charlie Baker, William Weld, and Mitt Romney; Vermont Gov. Phil Scott; and New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu.) It has put him on the radar of the national Republican strategists who ponder the possibility of a Hogan presidential run—should a more moderate post-Trump GOP ever emerge.

“Larry Hogan is an interesting guy to watch,” says Rick Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist and author of Everything Trump Touches Dies. “He may not be on the radar of the average voter outside Maryland, but political nerds know him.”

“He’s charismatic, he’s a people person, and he loves to talk. He’s been that way for 35 years.”

To understand how Hogan ascended to the stunning position he’s in, which includes a 22-point lead over Jealous in last week’s Goucher College poll, it is worth remembering that he was not really known—think Q rating terms—even after he was first elected. In a low-turnout year, he won by garnering roughly 19 percent of the voting-age eligible population. Ordering the National Guard into Baltimore in the midst of the Freddie Gray uprising 97 days into his first term raised his profile, but he still was not a well-defined figure outside the political class.

That changed two months later when he held a press conference, his wife Yumi by his side, and informed Marylanders he had been diagnosed with an aggressive form of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma after discovering a lump on his neck during a trade mission to Asia. Staying on the job despite the tough rounds of chemotherapy—his bald pate a visible testament of the battle—the newly elected Hogan, gregarious and self-deprecating by nature, proved more than just relatable to the average Marylander, but courageous as well. “The best news is that my odds of getting through this and beating this are much, much better than the odds I had of beating Anthony Brown,” Hogan joked during the announcement.

Now, there remains a narrative that Hogan’s bout with cancer, fraught as it could’ve been, remains at the core of his statewide appeal. Undoubtedly, it provided a sympathetic boost and a turning point in his approval numbers. But to credit his record popularity three years later to mere goodwill would be not just unfair, but a mistake.

“Let me preface this by saying I don’t think a cancer diagnosis is ever a good thing, for anyone, ever,” says Mileah Kromer, a Goucher College political scientist and pollster. “That said, a lot of people in the state didn’t really know who Larry Hogan was up until then—they hadn’t had time to fully shape an identity around him—and then that did it. Every family has been affected by cancer. His approval numbers were in the 40s at the time, and they shot up. That is all true. But to focus only on that is to miss Hogan’s gifts as a politician.”

Those gifts include Hogan’s remarkable skill in navigating a General Assembly with veto-proof majorities in both the state House and Senate, and dancing, on a nearly daily basis it seems, around the chaotic presidency of Donald Trump, the face of his party, just 35 miles down the road.

Democrats in Maryland, which Trump lost by 26 points, would love nothing more to tie Trump like a lead weight around the governor. Mostly, however, Hogan nimbly sidesteps the Twitter barrage and controversial policies coming from the other Pennsylvania Avenue—the one in D.C. But he has also taken some questionable positions and made some questionable statements for the leader of a blue state.

He remained mostly silent in the wake of the president’s Muslim travel ban and called efforts to limit state cooperation with ICE’s ramped-up deportation of immigrants “absurd,” for example. (In his first year in office, Hogan told the federal government Syrian refugees were not welcome in Maryland.) Two of his officials signed off on the state’s participation in a controversial Trump Administration effort probing alleged voter fraud. He joined embattled U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos on a visit to a Montgomery County school, but declined to comment on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, a pick many legal observers believe could imperil Roe v. Wade.

Most of these potentially polarizing episodes don’t stick to Hogan, however, and his ability to defuse problematic issues and appear pragmatic and reasonable have become a hallmark.

Hogan makes walking the difficult tightrope between the president’s words and deeds in more liberal Maryland almost look easy, says Richard Vatz, a professor of rhetoric and communications at Towson University. Stylistically, says Vatz, he’s able to alleviate middle-of-the-road Democratic voter concerns while not alienating the Republican base, by presenting himself as “not Trump” rather than “anti-Trump.” “When he does agree with the president’s agenda,” Vatz adds, “he goes out of the way to say he supports the policy, not necessarily the person behind it.”

“The real ‘Trump effect’ is that he is making Hogan look like a moderate,” Kromer says.

The General Assembly did override Hogan vetoes to pass a paid sick leave bill and higher renewable energy benchmarks, among other legislation, but overall he’s proved adept at avoiding losing fights in the state legislature, the importance of which he learned from his stint in the combative Ehrlich Administration. He maintains a solid rapport with powerful Senate President Mike Miller, who has known Hogan, through his father, since the governor was a teenager. “I let a lot of pitches go by,” Hogan says. “Where there is common ground, we work together.”

Hogan has let an automatic MVA voter registration, Planned Parenthood funding, and oyster sanctuary bills become laws without his signature to avoid veto override fights. He worked with the legislature to prevent Marylanders from losing their health care coverage following Trump Administration policy changes related to Obamacare and to oppose EPA cuts to Chesapeake Bay restoration funds. He collaborated with the General Assembly in putting together a $5-billion incentive offer to lure Amazon to Montgomery County.

But Hogan has also developed a knack for getting behind popular legislation he initially opposed. The fracking ban and the education lockbox amendment to the state constitution—which he now refers to as the “Hogan Lockbox” in a television ad—were first put forth and pushed by Democratic legislators. This week, Hogan began displaying a red apple, the trademarked logo of the 80,000-member Maryland State Education Association, on social media and campaign materials even though the teacher’s union has endorsed his Democratic opponent.

Hogan’s greatest gift as a politician, however, apparent to anyone who has crossed paths with him on the boardwalk in Ocean City, walking in Dundalk’s annual Fourth of July parade, or mingling at the Shake & Bake for that matter, is not his flair for branding or his political agility, as remarkable as those skills are. It’s a rare combination of personality traits for politicians: Hogan is not just an astute political animal, he is a happy warrior on the campaign trail, fun to be around, and disciplined off it.

No one has to ask the governor twice to pose for a selfie.

“He’s charismatic, he’s opinionated, he’s a people person, and he loves to talk,” says his old boss Ehrlich, who now works for the D.C. office of law firm King and Spalding. “He’s been that way for 35 years. Not all politicians are outgoing, but it helps, and he’s very outgoing.”

Hogan makes walking the difficult tightrope between the president’s words and deeds in more liberal Maryland almost look easy.

None of this, however, matters to progressive Democratic leaders and activists in Baltimore.

When Hogan brought his team to the Shake & Bake, local lay minister Glenn Smith, vice president of the Baltimore Equity Transit Coalition, led a small protest on Pennsylvania Avenue. Hogan’s spiking of the shovel-ready 14-mile, $2.9 billion Red Line transit project remains an issue because the lack of reliable public transportation remains the biggest impediment to employment in many neighborhoods, Smith says. “This was 13 years of planning, working with community leaders and community associations, and then just to come in and call it a ‘boondoggle,’ instead of, ‘How can we fix this? What can be improved?’ And to send $900 million back to the federal government—who does that?” says Smith, whose organization is trying to revive the once-in-a-generation initiative. “It felt punitive and mean-spirited.”

The governor admits no formal review document of the project was ever produced. State funds that would have been spent in Baltimore were diverted to highway projects in other parts of the state with higher concentrations of white residents, precipitating a civil rights complaint from the NAACP Legal Defense Fund and the ACLU, which the Trump Administration dismissed shortly after taking office.

At the same time, Hogan did green-light the Purple Line transit project, connecting suburban Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. Those two decisions together seemed to underscore a shift in the power structure in the state from Baltimore City to the booming D.C. suburbs.

Subsequently, the Hogan Administration’s $135 million effort to improve the MTA bus system in Baltimore has failed to become the “transformational” public transit system he promised. According to a study by the Central Maryland Transportation Alliance, on-time scores have not improved, and access to all jobs has marginally decreased since the change. More recently, an independent review after a four-week closure of the Metro Subway over potentially dangerous and long-ignored safety issues found troubling problems with the state transit agency, including poor inspection and maintenance practices and a failure to follow industry standards. Baltimore region commute times rank among the worst in country, surpassing even Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, Hogan, who says there are no new plans to address transportation woes within Baltimore City, has backed two high-speed rail projects, the Northeast Maglev and Elon Musk-pitched Hyperloop initiative between Baltimore and D.C, which further agitates some Baltimoreans. “The big problem for Baltimoreans is not getting to Washington, but getting across the city. Moving east-west has been a problem since the 19th century,” says former Johns Hopkins professor and Baltimore City historian Matthew Crenson. “The Maglev and Hyperloop make me furious.”

When Hogan opened his Baltimore City campaign office on North Avenue, City Council members Brandon Scott, Zeke Cohen, and State Delegate Brooke Lierman organized a counter press event across the street.

“There is a record here, and it is not a good record for Baltimore,” Lierman told the Real News Network, highlighting the Red Line, as well as the $1.5 billion redevelopment of State Center, now mired in lawsuits after Hogan’s decision to pull out of the deal. “I’m on the Appropriations Committee. Every year, it is a battle to make sure we are funding the priorities in Baltimore,” she added in an interview with the Real News Network. “Whether that’s the Baltimore Regional Neighborhoods Initiative, whether that’s funding for the Enoch Pratt, every year he cuts those initiatives out of his budget, and the General Assembly has to put that money back in and find money.”

Cohen, a former Baltimore City teacher and chair of the City Council’s Education and Youth Committee, said Hogan has underfunded city schools “somewhere in the range of $290 million to $360 million per year, depending on what study you follow” and alleged that when city school boilers “were bursting across the city and the children were in freezing classrooms . . . Governor Hogan was nowhere to be found.”

Cohen also called out Hogan for referring to unionized teachers as “thugs.”

Dave Werkmeister, a 34-year-old IT sales professional and Patterson Park Neighborhood Association member, voted for Hogan four years ago. Hogan won the city’s first district, the geographical bottom of the so-called “White L,” and may very well do so again, but Werkmeister says he’s been disappointed in Hogan’s actions related to Baltimore. “[The Hogan Administration] put out a map of all the major transportation projects in the state, and literally Baltimore City had been removed from the map,” Werkmeister says. “Symbolically, that said everything to me.”

The low point, in terms of Hogan’s rhetoric toward the city, probably came during the trial of the first police officer in the death of Freddie Gray. On WBAL Radio’s C4 Show, Hogan expressed “concern” that while people were venting their frustration over the death of Gray, who had died in police custody, no one was protesting about the 330 other people murdered in city. As City Councilman Brandon Scott responded, that was not just factually wrong—given the 300 Men Marches, Enough is Enough rallies, Citizens on Patrol Walks, and litany of vigils and efforts—it was disrespectful to the thousands of residents who want nothing more than to quell violence in the city.

It was also dismissive of the troubling and criminal problems within the Baltimore Police Department, highlighted by a Department of Justice investigation and punctuated by the recent convictions of eight members of the department’s Gun Trace Task Force.

In 2015, Hogan’s top housing official, Kenneth Holt, told a gathering at the annual summer conference of the Maryland Association of Counties that he was looking to loosen state lead paint poisoning laws, suggesting current statutes could motivate mothers to intentionally poison their children in order to receive free housing.

“Larry Hogan may be doing a great job for other parts of the state,” Werkmeister continues. “And I am not about to tell someone who lives in another part of the state, in another county, that he’s not. I don’t know that. I live here.”

At some point, pollster Kromer believes, one way or another, the city’s high crime and poverty rates, criminal justice problems, school funding shortages, and lack of reliable transportation, affordable housing, and living-wage jobs—will have to be addressed by Hogan. If for no other reason than Jealous, whose parents have Baltimore roots and who needs a big turnout in the city for the race to be close, will bring it up.

Hogan would rather keep the focus on the State of Maryland than the state of Baltimore, Kromer says. “But Baltimore will be litigated.”

If the election were today, 54 percent of likely Maryland voters would cast their ballot for incumbent Republican Larry Hogan in the race for governor, according to the latest Goucher College poll. Thirty-two percent say they would vote for Democratic candidate Ben Jealous.

Green Party candidate Ian Schlakman and Libertarian candidate Shawn Quinn each received one percent of the support of likely voters.

Nine percent of voters remain undecided. Another quarter of likely voters indicated they could change their mind, leaving some hope for Jealous, who trails Hogan significantly in fundraising efforts and only began airing his first television commercial after the poll concluded. Interestingly, by a margin of 47 percent to 36 percent, likely voters say they value a governor who is more focused on bringing about change than ensuring stability.

Statewide, likely Republicans voters favor Hogan by 91 percent to 1 percent margin. Currently, registered Maryland Democratic voters only break for Jealous by 10 points—48 percent to 38 percent.

“The cross [tabulations] tell the story,” St. Mary’s College political science professor Todd Eberly commented on Twitter. “The lesser known GOP candidates running against Cardin, Frosh, and Franchot are getting crushed. But Hogan is receiving strong support from core Democratic voters.”

In the first half of the Goucher College survey released yesterday, a significant majority of Marylanders backed policies—typically viewed as progressive Democratic initiatives and supported by Jealous—while also strongly supporting Hogan. Seventy-one percent of Marylanders now back raising the statewide minimum wage to $15 an hour—up from 66 percent in February 2018—with 25 percent in opposition. By a margin of 54 percent to 33 percent, Marylanders hold a favorable opinion of a Medicare for All/single payer healthcare system. And 62 percent of Marylanders support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use.

The single, one-hour televised debate between the two candidates is scheduled for 7 p.m. Monday and will be broadcasted on Maryland Public Television.

“Ben Jealous has faced a months-long barrage of negative ads and has a substantial disadvantage in campaign fundraising—and it’s prevented him from defining his candidacy to the public and making gains on his opponent,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “Hogan’s electoral strength continues to be grounded in political moderation and the confidence the public has in him to handle economic issues. We have less than two months to see whether Hogan can maintain his bipartisan voting coalition or if Jealous can turnout enough progressives to make up the difference.”

The Jealous campaign appeared to suffer an unforced error earlier this week when they vetoed a Hagerstown Herald-Mail reporter from the upcoming MPT debate panel and then rescinded the move after an up road from other local media outlets.

The economy/jobs (25 percent), education (13 percent), racial/social justice (13 percent), President Donald J. Trump/national political concerns (13 percent), and healthcare (11 percent) were highlighted by likely voters as the most important issues in making a vote for governor.

Overall, 66 percent of likely voters expressed more confidence in Hogan in terms of economic development and job creation, 51 percent had more confidence in Hogan in handling education concerns, and 51 percent had more confidence in Hogan in regards to healthcare issues.

Sixty percent of likely voters said their opinions toward embattled President Trump, the GOP’s national standard-bearer, “will have no or little effect on their choice for governor.”

A Hogan endorsement, the poll found, holds less sway perhaps than his strong survey numbers suggest. Just 38 percent of likely voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the governor. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents Sen. Ben Cardin and Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh both maintain significant leads on their challengers.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters in the state indicate they will vote for Cardin and 17 percent for Republican challenger Tony Campbell. Independent Neal Simon captured eight percent support.

Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in the state indicate they will vote for Frosh and 26 percent for Republican challenger Craig Wolf.

“Ben Cardin and Brian Frosh are both in a strong position to easily win their reelection bids in November,” said Kromer. “They both earn strong support from their Democratic base, as well as a solid percent of independent voters.”

Maryland residents overwhelmingly support a $15 minimum wage, the legalization of recreational marijuana, and a Medicare for All/single-payer healthcare system.

Interestingly, while backing those policies—typically viewed as progressive Democratic initiatives—Marylanders also strongly support Republican Gov. Larry Hogan.

According to the latest Goucher College survey conducted last week, 71 percent of Marylanders now back raising the statewide minimum wage to $15 an hour—up from 66 percent in February 2018—with 25 percent in opposition. By a margin of 54 percent to 33 percent, Marylanders hold a favorable opinion of a Medicare for All/single payer healthcare system. And 62 percent of Marylanders support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use.

Marylanders also continued to express strong support for incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (64 percent approval) and the general direction that the state is headed (55 percent).

“The underlying issue [in terms of support for Hogan] is taxes,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “Marylanders are, by and large, focused on economic issues and Governor Hogan has had a consistent message—that he has not raised taxes over the past four years.”

A majority of Marylanders (56 percent) consider the amount of state taxes they pay “too high.” Nearly half (48 percent) believe the current tax system advantages the wealthy, with 13 percent believing the current system is fair to everyone.

All of these issues that Marylanders are in support of are policies that have been put forth by Hogan’s Democratic challenger in the race for governor, Ben Jealous. Kromer cautions, however, support for a single-payer healthcare system is not quite as strong as support for improving the Affordable Care Act in Maryland.

“Support for a state-based Medicare for All plan distinguished Ben Jealous as a candidate for governor from the rest of field during the Democratic primary,” said Kromer. “However, opinions toward adopting a single-payer healthcare system are nuanced. Marylanders do view Medicare for All favorably, but a majority still prefers that elected officials focus on improving the way the Affordable Care Act is working for Maryland.”

Overall, the percentage of Maryland residents disapproving of President Donald Trump is among the highest in the country. With a margin of error +/-3.4 percent, 71 percent of the adults in the state disapprove of the president, who is battling controversies from the Russian investigation, his immigration and trade policies, and his nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Just 23 percent of Maryland residents approve of the job the president is doing.

Forty-five percent of Marylanders believe Hogan has distanced himself “about the right amount” from President Trump. Twenty-four percent of respondents indicated they believe Hogan has distanced himself too little from President Trump.

Almost half of Marylanders view the governor as a moderate (48 percent), 27 percent see him as a conservative, 10 percent think of him as a progressive, and 14 percent say they don’t know.

Tomorrow, Goucher will post other survey results, including poll numbers on the Hogan and Jealous race. In the latest Gonzales poll, Hogan led Jealous by 16 points in the state. The two candidates are scheduled to meet in a single televised debate September 24.

About the Goucher Poll:
The survey was conducted Tuesday, September 11, to Sunday, September 16, 2018. During this time, 813 interviews with Maryland adults were conducted noon to 9 p.m. on Monday to Friday and 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. Interviews are conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid, student interviewers. Interviews were not conducted with adults who were reached at business or work numbers. Eighty-three percent of the interviews were conducted on a cell phone and 17 percent were conducted on a landline.

Ben Jealous, the son of former Baltimore City school teachers and a former NAACP president, handily beat Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination Tuesday.

Jealous, an unabashed progressive with support from the Maryland teachers union and Sen. Bernie Sanders, will face off against incumbent Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, presenting voters with a clear choice in November. Despite a 2-1 Democratic advantage in registered voters in the state, Jealous is expected to have his work cut out in challenging Hogan, whose approval ratings have consistently ranked in the mid-60s during his first term. Unopposed in the Republican primary, Hogan also starts the general election campaign with a nearly $8 million fundraising lead on Jealous.

“Hogan will lose because he doesn’t know how run to against some who can build people-powered grassroots campaign,” Jealous told supporters at his campaign’s victory party at the Reginald F. Lewis Museum in Baltimore.

Jealous will certainly try to tie Hogan, considered a moderate Republican, to the head of his party, President Donald Trump, who received just under 34 percent of the vote in Maryland in 2016.

“A [Jealous] vs. [Hogan] race isn’t just interesting nationally because of what Jealous represents for the future of the Dem Party,” Goucher College political science professor Mileah Kromer commented on Twitter last night, “it’s also what Hogan represents for the future of Republican Party.”

In another high-profile primary race Tuesday, incumbent Baltimore State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby won another four-year term, defeating defense attorney Ivan Bates and former prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah, who essentially split the opposition vote. Mosby tallied just less than 50 percent support of Democratic voters with 96 percent of the precincts reporting last night.

Mosby became a national figure in 2015 after filing charges against six city police officers involved in the arrest of Freddie Gray, who died while in custody and maintained the support of numerous Baltimore political leaders, including Rep. Elijah Cummings, former Rep. Kweisi Mfume, and Mayor Catherine Pugh.

In Baltimore County, the Democratic nomination for county executive remained in a three-way deadlock after voting ended. Former Del. John Olszewski Jr., state Sen. Jim Brochin and County Councilwoman Vicki Almond posted 33.1 percent, 32.7 percent, and 31.8 percent of vote with more than 98 percent of the vote counted last night. However, a significant number of provisional ballots—nobody will know until July 5 how many—were likely cast yesterday after the Department of Motor Vehicles announced they failed to update the registrations of 80,000 voters over the past year. In the GOP nomination for Baltimore County executive, Insurance Commissioner Al Redmer easily defeated state Del. Pat McDonough.

In city state senate races, two incumbents, Nathan McFadden in East Baltimore, and Barbara Robinson in West Baltimore, lost to challenges from younger state delegates, Del. Cory McCray and Del. Antonio Hayes, respectively. Another state delegate, Del. Mary Washington appeared to be on the verge of upsetting state Sen. Joan Conway with 96 percent of the voting in Tuesday.

In another high-profile state senate race, Sen. Jill Carter held off a challenge from former school teacher J.D. Merrill, the son-in-law of former mayor and governor Martin O’Malley.

In a state house race that garnered regional and even some national attention, state Del. Robbyn Lewis, a public health expert and the first African-American woman to represent District 46, exceeded expectations in easily fending off a big-money challenge by newcomer Nate Loewentheil, a former Obama Administration official.

With 80 percent of the vote, U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin won the Democratic primary in his bid to return to Capitol Hill. He’ll be challenged by Tony Campbell, an author, minister, and political science professor at Towson University.

In District 6, the only open congressional seat in Maryland, Democrat David Trone, who spent nearly $12 million, will face defense consultant Republican Amie Hoeber, who also won GOP’s 2016 nomination. Rep. John Delaney is resigning his seat in a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in two years.

Pugh bested Republican Alan Walden and Green Party candidate Joshua Harris, who received 9 percent and 10 percent of the vote, respectively. Former mayor Sheila Dixon also mounted a challenge as a write-in candidate after narrowly losing the April democratic primary to Pugh and received 23 percent of the vote.

“To all of my opponents out there . . . there’s room under this tent for all of us,” Pugh said. “So let’s work together. Let’s move our city forward, not backward. Let’s become more inclusive, more diverse. Let’s create businesses, expand business, and create opportunity. Let’s get people working in Baltimore. I look forward to working for all of you.”

Overall, turnout was up from the last mayoral election, in 2011, when Stephanie Rawlings-Blake was elected to her first full term, reaping 84 percent of 45,000 votes cast. (Rawlings-Blake assumed the mayor’s seat in 2010 after Dixon was forced to resign amidst a scandal in which she was found to have misappropriated gift cards meant for the needy.) After that election, the city moved mayoral elections to coincide with the presidential election cycle—and Pugh’s margin of victory surely benefitted from an engaged electorate. Many polling places throughout the city reported long lines, several even experienced technical problems, and many residents were still waiting to vote until 9 p.m. tonight.

Though Pugh’s victory is not surprising in a city where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 10 to 1, some wondered about the strength of her winning coalition, especially after her slim margin of victory in the April primary. But today’s results indicate widespread, if not necessarily enthusiastic, support.

Also in attendance at the Radisson Hotel was Locust Point resident Sophia Silbergeld, who supported Pugh in both the primary and general elections.

“She has had a ton of experience,” Silbergeld said. “She has the city’s best interest at heart. She said this is the job she has always dreamed of and that’s the kind of mayor we want to have.”

In Northeast Baltimore, restaurateur Shawn Lagergren cast his ballot for Pugh. Though he supported Pugh in the primary, he also said his preference was solidified by a dearth of other viable candidates.

“I wasn’t going to vote for Sheila Dixon,” he explained. “It just didn’t look good for her with the scandals that had happened prior to this. I don’t think she should be back in.”

Cassandra Bridgeforth of Lauraville was even more frustrated with the options.

“I voted for Catherine Pugh. I hated it,” she said. “They gave me choices of the same old crap, or the same old crap, or the same old crap. At least show me new crap. [But] the other [candidates] just didn’t look like they had the power to be it. So I just held my nose and voted for Pugh.”

Pugh, a resident of Ashburton, is a former journalist, talk show host, and dean and director of Strayer Business College. She earned a BS and MBA from Morgan State University and runs CEPugh and Company, a marketing and public relations firm. She also co-owns a consignment shop in Pigtown called 2 Chic Boutique. Look for more on Pugh in the January issue of Baltimore magazine, on newsstands December 21.

If elected, Pugh has vowed to strengthen penalties for possession of a loaded handgun; enhance crime prevention programs like Citizens on Patrols, Neighborhood Watch, and Safe Streets; and establish an Office of Returning Citizens to help ex-offenders re-enter society.

She also has voiced support for increased funding for after-school and youth job programs, a return of Baltimore’s public school system to city control, and firing controversial Baltimore City Housing Chief Paul Graziano.

In addition to the mayor’s race, all 15 seats on the City Council were on the ballot this year. Many longtime incumbents chose not to seek reelection, providing opportunities for new faces on the council, which usually sees very limited turnover. Below is a list of all official entrants in City Council races. Bold type denotes the winner and an asterisk indicates a new council member.

President

Sharon Black – Unaffiliated

Susan Gaztanaga – Libertarian

Connor Meek – Green

Shannon Wright – Republican

Bernard C. “Jack” Young – Democrat (incumbent)

District 1

Zeke Cohen – Democrat*

Matthew McDaniel – Republican

District 2

Brandon M. Scott – Democrat (incumbent)

Gregory Yarberough – Republican

District 3

Ryan Dorsey – Democrat*

G. Andreas “Spilly” Spiliadis – Green

District 4

William “Sam” Broaddus III – Republican

Bill Henry – Democrat (incumbent)

District 5

Isaac “Yitzy” Schleifer – Democrat *

District 6

Sharon Green Middleton – Democrat (incumbent)

Richard Thomas White Jr. – Green

District 7

Leon F. Pinkett III – Democrat*

Tamara Purnell – Republican

Nnamdi Scott – unaffiliated

District 8

Joseph Brown Jr. – Republican

Kristerfer Burnett – Democrat*

District 9

John T. Bullock – Democrat*

Kenneth Earl Ebron Jr. – Republican

Jamie Latear Frierson – Green

District 10

Christine Digman – Republican

Amanda E. Maminski – Green

Edward L. Reisinger – Democrat (incumbent)

District 11

Eric Costello – Democrat (incumbent)

District 12

Frank W. Richardson – Unaffiliated

Ian Schlakman – Green

Dan Sparaco – Unaffiliated

Robert Stokes Sr. – Democrat*

District 13

George Johnson – Republican

Shannon Sneed – Democrat*

District 14

Thomas T. Boyce – Republican

Mary Pat Clarke – Democrat (incumbent)

David Harding – Unaffiliated